Will Prigozhin be the man to spark world war three?

So Yevgeny Prigozhin has turned his Wagner PMC mercenaries against his paymasters in Russia. I do wonder if he has completely lost his mind – although this is the danger of using mercenaries – they can play both sides.

Whatever the truth of it, this is unquestionably a gift for the collective west. They now all go to Vilnius for the NATO summit with a swagger, convinced that what they wanted all along – regime change in Russia as a means of intimidating China – is close at hand.

Hard to say how this will play out or who is behind it – but I doubt it will change the facts on the ground in the end. Might extend the war by 12 months or so with tragic consequences for Ukraine. As with all of these machinations, it might also be a preamble to nuclear war.

The most plausible path to peace that I can see is when the U.S. finally gives up on using Ukraine to further its geopolitical imperialism, adding Ukraine to other disasters like Afghanistan and Syria. But that path is (thanks to Prigozhin) a number of steps back today.

NATO will be emboldened by these developments and will bask in the warm opportunity for narrative management that this provides.

The neocons in Washington will seize on this event to assert that their insane plans have some coherence and deserve more money, more weapons and more escalation.

History may mark the abortive ‘coup attempt’ of Yevgeny Prigozhin as a key part of the preamble to a third world war.

If there is anyone left to write that history.

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