Is this the moment the USA started down the road towards a civil war?

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Nobody should celebrate this violent incident and it may be the spark for a dark American chapter

What we know so far. Donald Trump was rushed off stage at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania after gunfire superficially wounded the former-President. At time of writing two in the crowd are confirmed dead with one being a suspect. One other person is injured and in a ‘serious’ condition and we hope they pull through.

Trump was bundled out of the arena by Secret Service agents and his cavalcade left in a hurry shortly afterwards.

Firstly we need to say that we deplore violence of this or any kind and it is very sad that two people have lost their lives.

We will never know what the true motivation for the shooting was. Having seen the incident and the injury to Trump, I personally rule out a false flag stunt concocted by Trump’s team. It looked real to me and his reactions looked spontaneous.

An assassination attempt? Well, the Associated Press have confirmed it is being investigated as such. Many have a grudge against Trump and a lot of powerful people fear a Trump presidency and probably with good reason.

The recent supreme court ruling that the President of the USA is immune from prosecution effectively makes Trump a king in waiting. Trump has many scores to settle with powerful democrats, not least the Biden family. There are many billions of dollars of vested interests at stake and people have been killed for a lot less.

The truth of this incident will now be buried forever in a blizzard of speculation and propaganda, but what will be the reaction of Trump’s base of supporters and the U.S. nation in general?

Trump’s base are fairly easy to predict and you can see it already in any comments section in which they are present. They will see it as:

(a) An assassination attempt by an unholy alliance of the Democratic Party and the deep state.

(b) A vindication of their view that the last election was rigged by the same parties.

(c) Confirmation that Trump is protected by angels and / or has godlike powers.

(d) Pre-confirmation that any election result that doesn’t result in a Trump victory is a conspiracy against democracy and / or a satanic plot against righteousness.

(e) A call to arms.

With galactic understatement we can say that none of this is good. Might this moment spark a post election preamble towards an American Civil War? It may well. Whatever happens next ain’t gonna be pretty that’s for sure.

How will the voters outside of planet MAGA react? I don’t think that is at all straightforward. Trump may gain some sympathy votes but many will frame this incident as a false flag and some will buy into that. Some voters may fear that this incident is indicative of the kind of instability that a Trump victory will bring and may return to Biden as a safer option.

I think that this shooting will polarise political debate in the U.S. still further with tolerance, mutual respect and quiet reflection in short supply.

The reaction of the mainstream media to this will be revealing, I strongly suspect that the shooter will be portrayed in the classic ‘lone wolf / mentally ill’ frame that gets deployed when the usual suspects want to distance themselves from a shooting incident. Of course the more the media does this, the less Trump’s base will believe them.

The first rule of assassination has been followed – kill the assassin – so the truth is inaccessible now. All we can say is that this is another dark chapter in the story of a deeply troubled society, a fading empire and maybe a disintegrating nation.

The potential break up of the US as a functioning nation and its slide into an imperial tyranny under Trump should concern us all.

The shockwaves of this assassination attempt will spread around the world, but they may herald the gathering of a much bigger tsunami.